It is almost the end of the year, and I would like to provide you an overview of the countries that are expected to present economic growth during 2018. As well as the countries which market is increasing imports. We want to help you to identify the countries that better will fit in your business strategy and be the first option when considering expanding your business in the region.
According to FocusEconomics, the key countries that are expected to present biggest economic growth during 2018 is leaded by Peru with 3.0% followed by Argentina 3.0%, and Chile 2.8%. Mexico and Brazil are forecasting a growth of 2.3%. (see graphic under)
Nevertheless Mexico is still consider the region key player as it expected to keep growing steadily year per year (average of 2.5%) during the next five years. Taking in consideration the ability that Mexico has showed to recover from financial crises (2008); from natural disasters (2 earthquakes in 2017). Moreover the clear market openness the clear strategy that is supporting to reduce dependence to the US Market, allowing foreign direct investment, but not least, the attractive and important tourism industry that is supporting strongly the economy.
The biggest challenges are to be followed during 2018, including the NAFTA renegotiations that are still uncertain and that can affect important industries, as well as the upcoming presidential elections.
Argentina is expecting to grow 3%. Since the elections of the neoliberal Maurico Macri, who has open the economy for foreign investment and trade allowing private companies to participate in major infrastructure projects, increase in imports (see graphic under) and industrial manufacturing increased (2.4% vs. PY) for the first time in several years. The mid-term legislative elections results should support his ambitious reform agenda, which is looking to reduce fiscal deficit.
Peru presents an interesting recovery in the construction and mining sectors due to the increase of external demand, especially for metal exports. The construction sector contributed with public infrastructure spending. Moreover, business and consumer sentiment are improving, carried by the upturn in economic conditions.
Chile is benefiting from the copper prices and increasing demand from China. Moreover the business confidence is rising. On the political scene, Sebastian Piñera looks set to win the forthcoming first round of the presidential elections. The center-right candidate recently presented his manifesto, which promises to simplify President Bachelet’s controversial tax reform, reduce the corporate tax rate and introduce measures to increase competition and innovation.
In general, it is expected that countries start to import more. Not yet reaching the levels before the recesion in 2008, but the market size allows interesting opportunities for exporting countries like Switzerland.
If you would like to learn concrete opportunities for your business in Latin America, you can rely in LATAM BUSINESS NETWORK wide expertise and strategically approach. Contact Maria Mülli at contact@latambusinessnetwork.ch or give us a call and we will identify your potential in the Latin American market. If you want to get access to more financial information, get a free trial from our partner FocusEconomics.
